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WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: China distracts from Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia, July 21, 2019

RIYADH: Crude oil prices deteriorated despite rising tensions in the Arabian Gulf toward the end of the week. Brent crude prices dropped to $62.47 and WTI dropped to $55.63 per barrel.
WTI recorded its biggest weekly decline in seven weeks, having fallen sharply earlier in the week on hopes that the situation in the Gulf would improve along with parallel worries about global demand. At the same time, a major storm hurt output in the Gulf of Mexico, where production was down by almost a fifth in its wake.
We saw a continuation of the theme of previous weeks where the oil price largely ignored events in and around the Strait of Hormuz, even after Iran seized two British-flagged oil tankers.
Instead, the market reacted to Iran’s potential nuclear deal with the US that would include permanent enhanced nuclear inspections in return for the lifting of sanctions.
China’s crude oil throughput rose to a record in June, up 7.7 percent from a year earlier, following the start-up of two large new refineries. Crude oil processing reached 13.07 million bpd, beating the previous record in April of 12.68 million bpd.
Despite strong oil demand from China, oil prices slipped after Beijing posted its slowest quarterly economic growth in at least 27 years, reinforcing concerns about demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer.
China’s economy slowed to the weakest pace since quarterly data began in 1992 amid the ongoing trade standoff with the US, while monthly indicators provided signs of some stabilization emerging.
The International Energy Agency pounced on that news and published a shaky oil demand outlook and reduced its 2019 oil demand forecast to 1.1 million bpd, down from its initial forecast of 1.5 million bpd, due to the slowing global economy and the US.-China trade war.
Yet the economic impact of the US-China trade argument is not an oil market-reflective. Surprisingly, some economists suggest that the trade dispute could spark a global recession, sending incremental oil demand lower. This has caused growing concern about supply and poor economic growth that has pushed oil prices lower, based purely on sentiment.
Arabian Gulf crude grades have further strengthened backed by demand uptick from North Asian refineries.
Norway’s crude oil production slipped to the lowest in three decades to 1.38 million bpd in April from 1.387 million bpd in March and 1.531 million bpd a year ago.

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